Prediction-market tooling
Months of building tools to analyze and trade on Polymarket, a prediction market.
- Status
- Lessons written up
- Year
- 2026
- Role
- Solo
- Area
- Markets
In plain English
Prediction markets let people bet on real-world outcomes, and their prices act as crowd forecasts. I spent months building tools to analyze trades on Polymarket and to run automated strategies with small amounts of real money. The lessons are written up in an essay.
How it works
- Pull market and trade data from the Polymarket API.
- Analyze trades and backtest ideas (replay them against past data).
- Run automated strategies with small amounts of real money.
- Wrap every live action in risk gates (automatic limits that stop trading when something looks wrong).
What I did
I built the tooling solo and wrote up what I learned in "About ten dollars".
What I learned
The system earned about ten dollars, and the engineering, the safety gates and the lessons were worth far more.